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Sunday, September 9, 2012

Reconstruction Update


1.      “A Classified CIA Mea Culpa on Iraq,” Foreign Policy.com, Sep 2012.
This remarkable CIA mea culpa, just declassified this summer and published here for the first time, describes the U.S. intelligence failure on Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction as the consequence of "analytic liabilities" and predispositions that kept analysts from seeing the issue "through an Iraqi prism." The key findings presented in the first page-and-a-half (the only part most policymakers would read) are released almost in full, while the body of the document looks more like Swiss cheese from the many redactions of codewords, sources, and intelligence reports that remain classified even today, seven years after the Iraq Survey Group reported to the Director of Central Intelligence how wrong the prewar assessments had been…
2.      Redacted 15-6 Investigation on the Improper Handling of the Quran. U.S. Central Command, Aug 2012.
3.      The Citizens Archive of Pakistan
The Citizens Archive of Pakistan (CAP) is a non profit organization dedicated to Cultural and Historic Preservation. We seek to educate the community, foster an awareness of our nation's history and instill pride in Pakistani citizens about their heritage.
CAP has focused its attention on the tradition of oral story-telling in Pakistan, emphasizing the importance of such narratives in a dialogue on national identity. Our organization has three main goals: to preserve and provide access to the archive, to build and support educational programs, and to develop educational products based on the testimonies collected.
4.      “ ‘Statisquo’: British Use of Statistics in the Iraqi Kurdish Question (1919-32)”, Dr. Fuat Dundar, Jul 2012.
In post-2003 Iraq, the Kurds have continuously appealed for territorial rights in the regions where they claim to be the majority and have demanded a quota in the Iraqi state apparatus. As a result, conducting a census has become one of the most important battlefields in Iraq’s contemporary politics. In this Crown Paper, Dr. Fuat Dundar traces the use of statistics as a political tool in Iraq back to the exploitation of statistical data during the British mandate period (1919-1932). He also examines sets of British, Turkish, Iraqi, and League of Nations population data within the political context of its time. In particular, Dr. Dundar illuminates how the population data on Kurds—collected by the British—were used to protect the latter’s political and military interests as well as to maintain the status quo. In this way, statistics, ordinarily considered to be a scientific and objective tool, became a subjective tool in the service of political disputes.
5.      “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,” Office of the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Jul 2012.
6.      “Afghanistan Index,” The Brookings Institution, Aug 2012.
7.      “Iraq Index,” The Brookings Institution, Jul 2012.
8.      “Prospects for Indian-Pakistani Cooperation in Afghanistan,” Center for Strategic and International Cooperation, Aug 2012.
9.      “Country Programme for Afghanistan: 2012-2014,” United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Aug 2012.
Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of illicit opium and heroin. For the past decade, the country has accounted for an estimated 90 percent of global illicit opiate, fuelling local instability and insurgency, transnational organized crime, local, regional and global drug consumption and HIV/AIDS. The significant poppy cultivation and illicit trafficking of opiates create multiple challenges for Afghanistan, and the alarming growth in the abuse of illicit drugs results not only in human misery for families and individuals, but is also a huge challenge for society. With more than 1 million drug users and 5 percent of the population involved in drug cultivation, Afghanistan pays a very high cost for the illicit drug problem in the country.
There is a shared responsibility for the opiate problem in Afghanistan. It is estimated that nearly two thirds of the opium is converted into morphine or heroin in the country. This conversion requires more than 500 metric tons of precursor chemicals, which are smuggled into the country each year by Organized Criminal Groups. Afghanistan and the international community need to join hands to strengthen border controls to prevent the trafficking of drugs and precursors. Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries also need to stem corruption, which fuels money laundering and weakens governance in the region.
10.  “Afghanistan: The Timetable for Security Transition,” UK House of Commons, Jul 2012.
NATO assumed command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in August 2003.
At its Lisbon summit in November 2010, NATO agreed gradually to handover security responsibilities to Afghan National Security Forces by the end of 2014. At its summit in Chicago in May 2012, the Alliance confirmed ISAF’s mission will end on 31 December 2014. It also mapped out the transition of security for Afghanistan from ISAF to Afghan National Security Forces. Specifically, it set the goal for Afghan forces to be in the lead for security nation-wide by mid-2013.
Between now and the end of ISAF’s operation at the end of 2014, ISAF will gradually shift from a combat role to a training and assistance role. Forces will be gradually drawn down in the intervening period – individual countries are setting their own withdrawal plans within the overall framework of the 2014 end-date. Altogether there are nearly 129,000 personnel from 50 countries currently serving in ISAF.
The Government says British troops will move out of a combat role by the end of 2014 but will retain a combat capability until then. The British presence will be reduced by 500 to 9,000 personnel by the end of 2012. The Prime Minister has said the speed of further reductions between now and the end of 2014 will be “in accordance with conditions on the ground.”
There are five phases of the transition. The first was completed in 2011 and the second and third are underway. 75% of the Afghan population live in areas covered by the first three phases of transition. The fifth and final phase is not expected to be announced until mid-2013.
11.  “Justice and State-Building in Afghanistan: State vs. Society vs. Taliban,” The Asia Foundation, Aug 2012.
The functional administration of justice is an essential aspect of state-building and Afghanistan is no exception. A typical pattern of state development sees the stateestablishing control through the expropriation of the village communities’ ability to administer justice themselves; and in a sense, this creates a natural competition between state-administered justice and customary justice. This is particularly the case of criminal justice. Dispute resolution, on the other hand, is somewhat more problematic for the state to monopolise, both because of the huge workload and because if mishandled it can leave too many people unhappy.
In Afghanistan, the process of creating a state judiciary has developed slowly, first through the gradual assertion of state control over sharia courts starting from the reign of Abdur Rahman (1880-1900) and then with the development of a state-trained judiciary during the 20th century. On the eve of the 33-years-long series of conflict started in 1978, the state still did not claim monopoly over the judiciary, let alone effectively own it. The series of wars then inevitably reduced the reach of the state judiciary, particularly in the countryside. Much of what had been done in terms of centralising the judiciary under state control for a century was lost during the following quarter of a century.

12.  “Buried Mines in Afghanistan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,” The Carnegie Endowment, Aug 2012.
Last week American casualties in Afghanistan passed 2,000. But with the presidential campaign in full tilt and heavily focused on domestic issues, this milestone generated less interest than some that have gone before. A rash of attacks on NATO troops by their Afghan comrades gained rather more attention.
In a Q&A, Senior Associate Sarah Chayes, who lived for most of the past decade in Afghanistan and served as an adviser to senior U.S. military leadership, takes up these issues and their implications. She argues for a sober look at the time bombs U.S. policy may be planting in Afghanistan, and for rigorous planning to mitigate the potential damage. She also assesses candidates to replace General John Allen as commander of international troops.
13.  “Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2010-2011,” Central Statistics Organization (Afghanistan), Jun 2012.
The Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (AMICS) is a nationally representative sample survey that presents data on the social, health, and educational status of women and children in Afghanistan. It was conducted in 2010-2011 by the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, with the technical and financial support of UNICEF. The survey is based on the need to monitor progress towards goals and targets emanating from recent international agreements such as the Millennium Declaration and the Plan of Action of A World Fit For Children. It further helps track progress towards the Afghan Government’s policy commitments to reduce poverty and support the wellbeing of women and children, such as the commitments made through the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS).
The findings of the AMICS reveal the story of a country in transition, where many significant improvements have occurred in the last decade, as Afghanistan emerged from decades of war, poor governance, and widespread human rights abuses. Many Afghans have improved access to drinking water, school attendance is up for both boys and girls, and child mortality is relatively down, if still unacceptably high when compared with global estimates. Yet, progress has come more slowly in many areas, such as women’s literacy, and Afghanistan faces new threats on the horizon, such as HIV/AIDS. Across all sectors covered in AMICS, major disparities exist by the background characteristics of respondents. There are often dramatic differences in indicators between urban and rural areas, by household socio-economic status, and by region. Consistently, the education level of women emerges as a reliable predictor of almost all indicators for women and children. This finding is compelling evidence that investments in the status and wellbeing of women are investments in children, and in communities at large.
14.  “Snapshots of an Intervention: The Unlearned Lessons of Afghanistan’s Decade of Assistance (2001–11),” Afghanistan Analysts Network, Jul 2012.
The decade of state-building, reconstruction and development assistance in Afghanistan has left many people confused. There have been undeniable changes: Afghanistan now has an election-based, market-driven political system and many socio-economic indicators are far better than they used to be under Taleban rule or during the civil war (although that is, admittedly, not a very high bar). There have been great, albeit unequal, opportunities in terms of education, employment and enrichment. But there is also a strong sense of missed and mismanaged opportunities, which many – Afghans and internationals alike – find difficult to understand: how could so many resources have achieved what feels like so little and so fleeting?  
This edited volume explores the question by taking a closer look at a variety of key programmes and projects that were designed and implemented over the last decade, or more. It consists of a collection of 25 articles by analysts and practitioners with long histories in the country, who were closely involved in the programmes they describe. The contributions present a rare and detailed insight into the complexity of the intervention in Afghanistan – including the often complicated relations between donors and representatives of the Afghan government (with projects tending to be nominally Afghan-led, but clearly donor-driven), the difficulties in achieving greater coherence and leverage and, in many cases, the widely shared failure to learn the necessary lessons and to adapt to realities as they were encountered.
15.  “The tug o' war at Bagram,” The AfPak Channel, Sep 2012.
On Sunday [9 Sep 2012], there will be a "splendid ceremony" marking the handover of the United States' Bagram prison. Yet despite the pomp, the handover hides the real story - the Afghans wanted this to mark the end of U.S. detention power in Afghanistan, while the U.S. has other ideas.  
Remaking Bagram: The Creation of an Afghan Internment Regime and the Divide over U.S. Detention Power, a new report from the Open Society Foundations, revealed that while Afghan officials say they will have complete control over the Bagram detention facility-also known as the Detention Facility in Parwan (DFIP)-by September 9, 2012, the United States is likely to continue to control a portion of the facility. The Afghan government says that no detentions will be carried out by the U.S. military, while the United States maintains that it "still retains the authority to capture and detain."
16.  “Owning it: Time for the military to step up in Pakistan,” The AfPak Channel, Aug 2012.
As Pakistan's army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was declaring the "fight against extremism and terrorism" as his own war at the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Kakul (located less than a mile away from the now demolished bin Laden villa in Abbottabad) on August 13, militants were planning two audacious attacks: One against a key security installation in the country's heartland, and another on innocent civilians in the remote northern areas.  
Less than 72 hours after Kayani's address, which many observers termed a landmark speech because of its tone, wording and timing, nine armed men in uniforms belonging to security forces mounted a daring attack on Minhas Airbase Kamra, located less than 70 kilometers west of the country's capital Islamabad, on the Grand Trunk (GT) Road leading to Peshawar.  
The second attack, more barbarous in nature, was carried out in the Bubusar area of Mansehra district, located around 100 miles north of Islamabad, where armed men wearing military uniforms forced 20 Shia Muslims off a passenger bus and shot them at point blank range.
 
17.  “Contingency Contracting: Agency Actions to Address Recommendations by the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan,” U.S. Government Accountability Office, Aug 2012.
Over the past decade, the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (State), and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have relied extensively on contractors to help carry out their missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Between fiscal year 2002 and fiscal year 2011, these agencies reported combined obligations of approximately $159 billion for contracts with a principal place of performance in either country. Contractor personnel have provided a range of services related to supporting troops and civilian personnel and to overseeing and carrying out reconstruction efforts, such as interpretation, security, weapon systems maintenance, intelligence analysis, facility operations support, advice to Iraqi and Afghan ministries, and road and infrastructure construction. The use of contractors in contingency operations such as these is not new, but the number of contractors and the type of work they are performing in Iraq and Afghanistan represent an increased reliance on contractors to support agency missions.
Congress established the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan (CWC) in 2008 to assess contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan and provide recommendations to Congress to improve the contracting process.
The CWC was directed by Congress to assess contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan for reconstruction, logistics, and security functions; examine the extent of waste, fraud, and abuse; and provide recommendations to Congress to improve various aspects of contingency contracting, including defining requirements and identifying, addressing, and providing accountability for waste, fraud, and abuse.