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Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Reconstruction Update

1.      Pakistan-U.S. Relations: A Summary
Source: Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists)
From the report's summary:
This report summarizes important recent developments in Pakistan and in Pakistan-U.S. relations.
Obama Administration engagement with Pakistan has been seriously disrupted by recent events.
A brief analysis of the current state of Pakistan-U.S. relations illuminates the main areas of contention
and uncertainty. Vital U.S. interests related to links between Pakistan and indigenous American
terrorism, Islamist militancy in Pakistan and Islamabad’s policies toward the Afghan insurgency,
Pakistan’s relations with historic rival India, nuclear weapons proliferation and security, and the
troubled status of Pakistan’s domestic setting are reviewed. Ongoing human rights concerns and U.S.
foreign assistance programs for Pakistan are briefly summarized, and the report closes with an
analysis of current U.S.-Pakistan relations. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41832.pdf
2.      The Status Report: Afghanistan and Pakistan Civilian Engagement
November 4, 2011 21:17
Source: U.S. Department of State
From the press statement by Secretary Clinton:
The civilian surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan that President Obama launched in 2009 to accompany the military surge in Afghanistan has helped advance our goals of defeating al-Qaeda, reversing the Taliban's momentum in key areas, and bolstering the economy and civil society of both countries. As U.S. troops begin a phased drawdown in Afghanistan as part of the larger plan for transition, our civilian initiatives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan are assuming new importance.
This report provides a thorough review of our civilian efforts, identifies significant challenges and areas of progress, and outlines the way forward.
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/176809.pdf

3.      Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011: Summary Findings, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
Overview:
The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2011 was estimated at 131,000 hectares (ha), a 7% increase compared to 2010. 95% of total cultivation took place in nine provinces in the Southern and Western regions6, which include the most insecure provinces in the country. This confirms the link between insecurity and opium cultivation observed since 2007.
The number of poppy-free provinces decreased from 20 in 2010 to 17 in 2011 as Baghlan and Faryab provinces in the Northern region and Kapisa province in the Eastern region lost their poppy-free status.
Potential opium production in 2011 was estimated at 5,800 mt, a 61% increase compared to 2010, when opium yields were much reduced due to plant diseases.
http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Executive_Summary_2011_web.pdf

4.      Message from the Director: Setting the Record Straight on Our Afghanistan Analysis, Statement to CIA Employees by Director David H. Petraeus, October 14, 2011
An Associated Press article published today presents an inaccurate picture of my thoughts on the CIA's Afghanistan analysis. The article asserts that a change in process introduced to enhance coordination, to get our officers even earlier access to more information, and to ensure we gain the benefit of hearing from those on the ground full-time—intelligence base chiefs, civilian experts, and military officers alike—was somehow designed to impose a military viewpoint on our analysis. That is flat wrong.
https://www.cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/press-release-2011/setting-the-record-straight-on-our-afghanistan-analysis.html

5.      2014 and Beyond: U.S. Policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan, Part I, Hearing before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia
Testimony:
a.       Steve Chabot, Subcommittee Chairman http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/cha110311.pdf
b.      Zalmay Khalilzad http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/kha110311.pdf
c.       LTG David W. Barno, USA (Ret.) http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/bar110311.pdf
d.      Ashley J. Tellis http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/tel110311.pdf
e.       C. Christine Fair http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/fai110311.pdf

6.      Crackdown in Iraq: Former Ba’athists Still Pose Lingering Security Challenge
Executive Summary
Hundreds of people have been arrested all around Iraq in an operation launched by the security forces against members of the banned Ba’ath party. The crackdown came a few days after U.S. President Barack Obama announced that U. S. forces will pull out from Iraq by the end of 2011, a deadline assigned by the United States and Iraq two years previously. The operation is one of the biggest of its kind in post—war Iraq. More significantly Iraqi officials introduced it as a pre-emptive strike against an alleged plan to overthrow the government and the whole Iraqi political order. However, tension over the Iraqi government’s decision to move forward with the operation has created discord at the highest levels. It was reported that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had a verbal encounter with one of his Deputy Prime Ministers—Saleh al-Mutlaq [1]—over the issue during a cabinet session. (al-Mada October 26, Asharq al-Awsat October 27). The authorities have depended on a membership list of the old party, and claimed that it had revived its old structure. People from both Sunni and Shia areas were arrested but in general the crackdown was welcomed by the Shia parties. Critics, especially from the dominantly Sunni Iraqia party, have vocally opposed the operation claiming that the arrests were politically motivated. The issue of dealing with Iraq’s Ba’athist past has been one of the most divisive factors in Iraq after the U.S.-led invasion. With the recent developments, it is clear that it will cause even more tensions in the post-American era. The whole affair came amid a recent surge in violence across Iraq.  
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38618&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=26&cHash=d1b6a06f91304f3d57677251fb71841a

7.      The Haqqanis as the Pivot in the Deteriorating US-Pakistan Relations by Shahid Javed Burki, National University of Singapore
The author of this article addresses the question as to what kind of Afghanistan Washington should leave behind. To leave the country at peace, one of the more important things is to have the powerful Haqqani network in the country’s south and with a sanctuary in Pakistan to align itself with Washington’s broad objectives. Would the use of force bring this about or would negotiations among different interest parties produce the desired result?
http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/133438/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/9fa28ccf-340f-4d1d-912b-b5be86183c68/en/EVELINE_ISAS_Insights_138.pdf

8.      Constitutional Interpretation and the Continuing Crisis in Afghanistan, Scott Worden and Sylvana Q. Sinha, United States Institute of Peace
Summary
The recent controversy in Afghanistan over the outcome of the 2010 parliamentary elections ultimately resolved the question of who sits in Parliament, but left a more fundamental question
unanswered: “Who has the power to interpret the Afghan Constitution?”
• Ambiguities in the language of the Constitution make it difficult to determine who has the legal authority to interpret it. The Supreme Court maintains that the Constitution gives it the power of judicial review, but the Constitution also calls for the Independent Commission on the Supervision of Implementation of the Constitution (ICSIC), which the Parliament has mandated to decide constitutional issues instead.
• Without political and legal consensus over who has final authority to decide different types of constitutional claims, Afghanistan cannot achieve a rule of law where government activities are subject to consistent and transparent rules.
• Afghanistan must establish clear and unambiguous rules for constitutional interpretation to avoid damaging crises about political leadership and the separation of powers as the security transition and Presidential election approach in 2014.
http://www.usip.org/files/resources/PB%20113.pdf

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