Iraq Reconstruction News 2 January 2007

Iraq Reconstruction News
2 January 2007


1. Iraq Information Communication Technology (ICT) & Education Summit. The Iraq Information Communication Technology (ICT) & Education Summit will be held 27-28 February 2007 in the UAE: http://www.iraqdevelopmentprogram.org/idp/istc/index.htm

2. Iraqi actors dare bombings to perform open air drama. (VOI) – Several Iraqi actors gave an open air performance in a hotspot of Baghdad on Thursday in a show of defiance to escalating violence in the Iraqi capital. http://www.aswataliraq.info/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=33167

3. Japan business delegation in Kurdish north. Azzaman. A Japanese business delegation has arrived in the Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya to discuss what Japan can do to reconstruct the Kurdish region. http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=2795

4. Commentary: 'Reverse eyes' on Iraq. As the United States determines a new strategy in Iraq, it is extremely unfortunate for the Iraqis and for the US standing there and throughout the region that any extensive overhaul of reconstruction efforts is unlikely at this critical time. http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20061220-042303-6569r

5. Oil: Fuel for Iraq's Insurgents. As civil war boils, the country's future depends on how sectarian groups divide what's underground. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16299313/site/newsweek/

6. Seoul moving to allow companies to do business in Iraq. http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061229/440100000020061229114456E9.html

7. Iraq issues 32 licenses to import food products. http://www.portaliraq.com/news/Iraq+issues+32+licenses+to+import+food+products__1112400.html

8. Sectarian Land Grab: Iraqi Families Lose Homes in Baghdad. BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Khattab al-Juboori, a Sunni Muslim, was preparing to move from his longtime home to escape the threat of sectarian violence in his largely Shiite Muslim neighborhood. Then, with a phone call from the wife of the man to whom Mr. al-Juboori was planning to rent the home, the situation got even worse. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116709898582359370.html?mod=special_page_iraq_1

9. Baghdad homeowners in an unreal state. House prices fluid as Sunnis, Shiites seek out safer areas. http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/22/MNG2MN4B3I1.DTL

10. BBC Charts re Iraq reconstruction. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/post_saddam_iraq/html/1.stm

11. Methods of Reviving the Iraqi Army. Arab News. AMONG THE 79 recommendations listed by the Iraq Study Group headed by former US Secretary of State James Baker and Democratic Congressman Lee Hamilton, those listed under 50 and 51 can be considered the most important. These state that “the entire Iraqi national police” and “the entire Iraqi Border Police should be transferred to the Ministry of Defense” and thus tries to promote the institutions of the Iraqi military significantly over that of the Iraqi police forces. Given that the current police forces are heavily infiltrated by militias and have lost much credibility and public support, promoting Iraqi Army institutions would appear to be the key to enhancing security in Iraq. The question, however, is to what degree can these recommendations actually be implemented? http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=90014&d=14&m=12&y=2006

12. Iran keen on Iraqi reconstruction, development: Vice President. Tehran, Dec 26, IRNA Iran-Iraq-Davoodi. First Vice President Parviz Davoodi said Tuesday Iran is ready to contribute to development and reconstruction of Iraq. http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0612270739085109.htm

13. Commanders Bound for Iraq Tailor Strategies to a Fragmented Nation. WSJ. As the debate over U.S. policy in Iraq rages among top officials in Baghdad and Washington, lower-level American commanders preparing for tours of duty in that country are developing their own strategies for tamping down the violence there. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116710189425859394.html?mod=special_page_iraq_1
A letter to the editor in response to the article is at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116736569222662333.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

14. Turkey: MIT Issues Secret Report on Kirkuk, Iraqi Kurds' Intentions. Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 28 December. BBC Monitoring.
Report by Ebru Toktar of Tempo weekly news magazine: "MIT's Secret Kirkuk Report"]

MIT [National Intelligence Agency], which is keeping close ties on developments involving the petroleum of Kirkuk, has issued a warning to the relevant state institutions with a report stamped "secret." MIT, which in the report assesses the latest stage reached in the Draft Petroleum Law drawn up by the Kurdish Regional Government led by [Mas'ud] Barzani, warns that all the conditions have matured for Kirkuk, described as "disputed territory", to be joined to the Kurdish region. It is stated in the report that "the goal of the Kurdish Regional Government is, by bringing about a fait accompli, to establish domination over the petroleum and natural resources in Northern Iraq." The petroleum of Kirkuk, which closely impacts Iraq's future, is seen as an "indispensable red line" for the Kurds. The status and the oil of Kirkuk, which are also intimately connected to regional balances, are also being closely watched by Turkey. From this standpoint MIT, which has been engaging in important intelligence work, is warning the institutions of the state against the dangers confronting the region.

Tempo has obtained a copy of this secret correspondence on Kirkuk, which was prepared on behalf of the MIT Undersecretary [Emre Taner] by his Deputy, Cemal Uzgoren. This document, dated 3 October 2006, which points out the dangerous developments in the Kirkuk region, is comprised of four headings and three pages. In the document, which is stamped "secret," the plans of the Kurdish Regional Government to get hold of Kirkuk, which possesses over half of Iraq's oil, are laid out. In the report, which was sent to the General Staff, the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, and the Undersecretariat for Foreign Trade, it is warned that every sort of condition has matured for Kirkuk to be joined to the Kurdish Regional Government led by Mas'ud Barzani.

In its report, MIT explains the risks from Turkey's standpoint of the Iraq Kurdish Region Draft Petroleum Law drawn up by the Kurdish administration. MIT points out that the draft reveals the future goals of the Kurdish administration. Observing that the Kurdish Regional Government "has come to the point of acting like an independent state by leaving the Iraqi central government out of the loop," MIT includes the warning that "it is seen as being useful for the developments to be followed with sensitivity, and for stress to be given to the measures that might be taken from Turkey's standpoint."

MIT, stressing that in the event of the draft becoming law, the Kurdish Regional Government would be able to enter into petroleum agreements with third countries, and would be able to assume total control over the region, including the Kirkuk-to-Yumurtalik oil pipeline, indicates the developments that could take place prior to the referendum that is to be held in December of 2007. Because, according to this draft, the Kurdish Regional Government, if it should conclude that the people living in Kirkuk will be joined to the Kurdish Region with the referendum, could even enter into petroleum contracts prior to the referendum.

Stressing that the Kurdish Regional Government, which has begun to behave with the mentality of a "state within a state," could seize disputed territories, including Kirkuk, MIT summarizes its findings under four main headings:

Kirkuk and Oil

Regarding the Oilfields

The Draft Law. [only these three are listed here.]

The Iraqi Kurdish Region Draft Petroleum Law, which was drawn up by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and will be presented to the Kurdish Parliament, clarifies the concepts of "existing field" and "future field." Oilfields that were in commercial production prior to 22 August 2005 and produced a daily average of 20 thousand barrels of oil in any 12-month period prior to this date are defined as "existing fields", while all other fields are defined as "future fields."

The area of application of the Kurdish Region Draft Petroleum Law is defined as including the "disputed territories" in addition to the Kurdish Region itself. Kirkuk is shown within the disputed territories. The draft posits the Kurdish Regional Government as the sole authority in petroleum operations in the areas described as "disputed territories," which include Kirkuk, and in "future fields."

a) The Kirkuk referendum: The draft entails that, in the event of the Kurdish Regional Government's concluding that people living in disputed territories, and especially Kirkuk, will decide in a referendum that these territories be linked with the Kurdish region, it will be able to enter into the petroleum contracts that it wishes in disputed territories, including Kirkuk, even before the referendum is held.

b) Petroleum operations independent of the Iraqi government: It is stated in the draft that the Kurdish Regional Government has the right to enter into agreements with neighbouring countries independently of the Iraqi government, and that no legal or administrative arrangements of the Iraqi government will be valid in petroleum operations in the Kurdish region or the disputed territories.

c) Pipelines: Control over all the existing petroleum operations in the Kurdish Region, as well as over all the related infrastructure, such as pipelines and refineries, is left to the Kurdish Regional Government.

d) Share of petroleum: The draft also calls for the Iraqi Central Government to give a share of the petroleum income from the country as a whole to the Kurdish Regional Government. Otherwise, it provides for the Kurdish Regional Government's being able to sell directly the petroleum produced in its own region and in disputed territories.

The draft also seeks to guarantee not only the future, but the past as well. The draft, which notes the petroleum revenues that the Kurds had not been able to benefit from in the past, calls for payments to be made, for a certain period, based on this past income.

e) Agreements: The draft stresses that all the agreements that have been made in the Kurdish Region are valid. It provides for the Kurdish Regional Government to intervene in all agreements that the Iraqi government has made in the Kurdish Region and in Kirkuk until the date on which this law goes into effect. And it stipulates that the approval of the Kurdish Regional Government be obtained for all agreements that will be made following the law's entering into effect.

What Does the Kurdish Regional Government Intend?

MIT, in the second section of its observations, assesses the background in the mind of the Kurdish Regional Government. The assessment on the topic by MIT, which has concluded that the Kurdish administration is considering presenting the Iraqi government with a fait accompli, is as follows:

"In the draft law, it is assumed that there is an institution named the Iraqi State Oil Trust Organization (SOTO), which does not currently exist, and the relationship of this institution with the Kurdish Regional Government, and its authorities, are set forth. Additionally, the draft, which accepts international arbitration for the resolution of disputes, also includes the authorities that could be exercised on behalf of the central government in this case."

Dangers Confronting Kirkuk According to MIT

MIT, making the observation that the draft law was written by the Kurdish Regional Government with the logic of "a state within a state," lists as follows, in its third section, the problems that would emerge in the event of this draft's becoming law:

"It is evaluated that they will take into their direct control those fields in disputed areas, and particularly Kirkuk, which have been understood to contain petroleum by means of exploration carried out by Iraqi administrations in the past, but in which production has not yet begun; that they may bring under their control all the petroleum infrastructure in Kirkuk, as well as the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik Oil Pipeline; that they may, before the referendum is held, enter into petroleum agreements involving all the disputed territories, including Kirkuk, as well as future fields; that they may seize all the fields in disputed areas, including Kirkuk, by using as a pretext the disagreements with the government of Iraq over the distribution of revenues obtained from the existing oilfields; and that they will, by shutting the government of Iraq completely out of petroleum operations, act like an independent state."

MIT's Warning to State: "Take Measures"

In the fourth section, in which it makes recommendations on the basis of its observations, MIT warns that it is essential that Turkey closely monitor developments.

Because according to MIT, "In an environment in which the constitutional and legal provisions pertaining to the distribution of Iraq's oil and natural resources have not yet been put into effect, and the national petroleum policy has not been determined, the Kurdish Regional Government aims to establish domination over the petroleum and natural resources in Northern Iraq by creating a fait accompli."

Likewise, according to MIT, the Kurdish Regional Government, calculating that it may be that not all of these demands will be accepted by the central government, is actually leaving some margin for negotiation.

Saying that "the draft is important from the standpoint of understanding the Kurdish Regional Government's goals for the future," MIT calls for measures to be taken: "Within this framework, it is seen as being useful for developments that, in a situation of uncertainly, might lead the Kurdish Regional Government to establish direct ties with third countries and enter into agreements with them, leaving Baghdad out, to be followed with sensitivity, and for stress to be given to the measures that might be taken from Turkey's standpoint."

Where Are Iraq's Kurds Headed?

Following the acceptance of the new "Kurdish National Anthem" in Northern Iraq, Mas'ud Barzani, who uses the title of "Kurdistan Regional President," is also stepping up his activities. According to a report from the Dogan News Agency, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), under the leadership of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, and the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), under the leadership of Mas'ud Barzani, gathered in Baghdad on 15 November 2006. The PUK and KDP members, who discussed the latest situation of Iraq and its Kurdish Region, described the implementation of article 140 of the constitution, which provides for resolving the situation of Kirkuk and other problematic cities, as a "priority duty." The Kurdish leaders, in a meeting held in the Palace of the Iraqi Head of State, reiterated their support for the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, which they characterized as a "National Unity Government." In the Kurdish Parliament, agreement was reached on a draft law providing for the establishment of a Ministry of Peshmerga [referring to Kurdish irregular fighters], and for the armed Kurdish force of 180 thousand to be made directly subordinate to Mas'ud Barzani.

Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 28 Dec 06