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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Reconstruction Update


1.      Civilian contractor deaths -- "Best kept secret of the wars".  OregonLive.com, July 2012.
Debi Klecker of Bend, Oregon was advising Iraqi police in 2005 when she was killed by a roadside bomb. In that capacity, she worked with -- but wasn't part of -- the U.S. military. She was, instead, employed by DynCorp International.   According to the www.americancontractorsiniraq.org web site, at least 108 civilian contractors were killed in the first six months of the current year. The website declares: "Scandal in mistreatment of Silent Service members. We are the best-kept secret of the wars."  http://blog.oregonlive.com/oregonatwar/2012/07/civilian_contractor_deaths_--.html
2.      “Blind in Baghdad,” Michael Knights, ForeignPolicy.com, July 2012.
Something is stirring in Iraq. On July 3, car bombs ripped through mainly Shiite neighborhoods across the country, killing 36 people. It was the latest tragedy in a bloody month -- a prolonged political crisis has weakened the government in Baghdad, giving insurgent groups an opening to expand their operations. The consequent surge in violence has led some to fear that the country could once again be descending into civil war.
But just as Iraqi politics heats up, the United States is rapidly losing its ability to decipher events in the country. "Half of our situational awareness is gone," an unnamed U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal in June. "More than half," a serving U.S. military officer told me when I asked about the accuracy of that statement. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/05/blind_in_baghdad?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full 
3.      “Afghanistan’s Buried Riches,” Sarah Simpson, Scientific American, October 2011.
The scene at first resembles many that play out daily in the war-torn Red Zone of southern Afghanistan: a pair of Black Hawk helicopters descend on a hillside near the country’s southern border with Pakistan. As the choppers land, U.S. marines leap out, assault rifles ready. But then geologists sporting helmets and heavy ceramic vests jump out, too. The researchers are virtually indistinguishable from the soldiers except that they carry rock hammers instead of guns. A human chain of soldiers encircles the scientists as they step forward on the dusty ground.
“The minute you get off, you go into geologist mode,” says Jack H. Medlin, director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s activities in Afghanistan. “You forget, basically, that these guys are around—unless you try to get out of the circle.”
4.      “Welcome to Afghanistan’s Future,” Jeffrey Goldberg, TheAtlantic.com, July 2012.  
It used to be commonplace in Afghanistan that women living under Taliban rule feared execution following accusations of adultery, and it will one day be common again, now that the West has decided that it is too difficult to keep the promises it made to Afghanistan's women. In fact, it's already happening:  At the outset of the fuzzy video, which runs nearly four minutes and appears to have been taken by a Taliban member with a cellphone, Najiba is a peripheral figure, seen kneeling in the background. Her body is turned away from the camera, her head is shrouded by a gray scarf.
One of the Taliban says the Koran prohibits adultery. Killing the woman is "God's order and decree," he says. "If the issue was avenging deaths, we would beg for her amnesty. But in this case, God says, 'You should finish her.'" He concludes by saying, "It's the order of God, and now it is her husband's work to punish her."
Then someone else says, "Give him a Kalashnikov." http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/07/welcome-to-afghanistans-future/259550/  
5.      “Final Forensic Audit Report of Iraq Reconstruction Funds,” Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, July 2012.
SIGIR audits, inspections, and investigations have found serious weaknesses in the government’s controls over Iraq reconstruction funds that put billions of American taxpayer dollars at risk of waste and misappropriation. The precise amount lost to fraud and waste can never be known, but SIGIR believes it is significant. As of June 30, 2012, SIGIR audit reports had questioned $635.8 million in costs, and SIGIR Investigations, working with other agencies, had resulted in $176.84 million in fines, forfeitures, and other monetary results.
SIGIR audit reports identified internal control weaknesses such as inadequate reviews of contractors’ invoices, insufficient numbers of, or inadequately trained oversight staff, poor inventory controls, high staff turnover, poor recordkeeping, insufficient price competition by subcontractors, and weak oversight of cash disbursements. For example, SIGIR’s audit of a DoS contract for Iraqi police training program support found that more than $2.5 billion in U.S. funds was vulnerable to fraud and waste as a result of poor DoS oversight. Another SIGIR audit of a DoD contract for warehousing and distribution services found that the contractor’s business systems had not been adequately reviewed. http://www.sigir.mil/files/audits/12-017.pdf#view=fit
6.      “As NATO Draws Down, Afghans Fear A Brain Drain,” NPR.org, June 2012.   
As NATO troops leave Afghanistan, there will also be a decline in aid money that has flooded the country over the past decade and created hundreds of thousands of jobs funded by donor money. That means fewer jobs for Afghans, and skilled Afghans may be tempted to leave the country as part of a brain drain that could further weaken a fragile state.
Many Afghans, particularly those with an education and means, fled the country during wars dating back more than three decades. Some have come back in recent years. But another mass exodus would deprive Afghanistan of a critical building block. Sitting in the basement of a large house-turned-office isn't where Rohullah Zarif wants to be. He spent 15 years with the development organization CARE Afghanistan. Now, he's a technical adviser for an international construction and support services firm. "Here, I am working for one person. He's the owner of the company," Zarif says. "When I worked for CARE, it means my [efforts] reached to the poor communities that are in need."

7.      “Fiscal Year 2011 Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund Projects Are behind Schedule and Lack Adequate Sustainment Plans”, Special Inspects General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, July 2012. http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/2012-07-30audit-12-12Revised.pdf   

8.      “Preparing Advisers for Capacity-Building Missions”, United States Institute of Peace, August 2012.
As part of their efforts to support the rebuilding and reform of post-conflict and transitional states, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the United Nations, and other members of the international community are sending international advisers to work alongside high-level officials in national institutions.
Advisers are recruited for their strong professional expertise in fields such as logistics and human resources. However, they have had little preparation in transferring that knowledge to others, especially in a transitional or post-conflict environment.
If they are to contribute to sustainable reforms, advisers need to be taught how to transfer knowledge in a complex and alien environment, how to operate without formal authority, and how to cultivate local ownership.
9.      “Afghanistan Monthly Progress Report: June 2012,” Department of International Development, Foreign & Commonwealth Office and Ministry of Defence, July 2012. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/afghan-progress-jun12.pdf
10.  “The Global Afghan Opium Trade”. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, October 2011.
Opiates originating in Afghanistan threaten the health and well-being of people in many regions of the world. Their illicit trade also adversely impacts governance, security, stability and development—in Afghanistan, in its neighbours, in the broader region and beyond.
“The Global Afghan Opium Trade,”, the second such report of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime research project on the topic, covers worldwide flows of Afghan opiates, as well as trafficking in precursor chemicals used to turn opium into heroin. By providing a better understanding of the global impact of Afghan opiates, this report can help the international community identify vulnerabilities and possible countermeasures.
Heroin is the most dangerous drug…
11.  “Religious Movements, Militancy and Conflict in South Asia: Cases from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan”, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, July 2012.
The top headlines of the past year have made increasingly clear to U.S. government officials the central—but complicated—roles that religion plays in many of the most strategically important engagements of the United States.
Since early 2011, the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have brought about significant changes to long-standing political regimes. Concerns in the West over the types of regimes that will replace Muammar Qaddafi, Hosni Mubarak, and potentially others have been fueled in part by uncertainty over the role religion will play in national and regional politics. In some cases, these movements initially forged a degree of solidarity among protesters from different religious communities.  But subsequently there has been an increase in sectarian, religious, and ethnic animosities among the challengers in some of those countries. For example, in the wake of Hosni Mubarak’s departure from Egypt, the country saw a surge in violent clashes between the Sunni Muslim majority and the Coptic Christian minority.
12.  “Afghanistan Annual Report 2011”, United Nations Development Programme, June 2012.
Despite being confronted with major security challenges and a fragile political environment in Afghanistan, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) remains committed to improving the lives of Afghans, many still suffering following decades of war, recurrent natural disasters and a continuing cycle of violence.  
The country’s fragile security situation have posed serious hurdles in the delivery of vital assistance in many areas, yet UNDP forges ahead – even in the most remote, rugged parts of the country – working tirelessly to improve the lives of Afghans across the country. With more than 800 staff on the ground and equipped with nearly 50 years of experience working in the country, UNDP has established its role as a provider, supporter and resource of development assistance in Afghanistan.  
During the past 10 years, UNDP has been at the forefront of international and Afghan efforts to build democratic institutions, promote human rights, and rebuild the country’s economy. In 2011 alone, UNDP delivered more than US$700 million in development assistance to Afghanistan, much of it focused on crisis prevention and recovery activities, in order to support the government’s efforts in conflict prevention and peace-building.
13.  “Snapshots of an Intervention: The Unlearned Lessons of Afghanistan’s Decade of Assistance (2001–11)” Afghanistan Analysts Network, August 2012. 
The decade of state-building, reconstruction and development assistance in Afghanistan has left many people confused. There have been undeniable changes: Afghanistan now has an election-based, market-driven political system and many socio-economic indicators are far better than they used to be under Taleban rule or during the civil war (although that is, admittedly, not a very high bar). There have been great, albeit unequal, opportunities in terms of education, employment and enrichment. But there is also a strong sense of missed and mismanaged opportunities, which many – Afghans and internationals alike – find difficult to understand: how could so many resources have achieved what feels like so little and so fleeting? 
This edited volume explores the question by taking a closer look at a variety of key programmes and projects that were designed and implemented over the last decade, or more. It consists of a collection of 25 articles by analysts and practitioners with long histories in the country, who were closely involved in the programmes they describe. The contributions present a rare and detailed insight into the complexity of the intervention in Afghanistan – including the often complicated relations between donors and representatives of the Afghan government (with projects tending to be nominally Afghan-led, but clearly donor-driven), the difficulties in achieving greater coherence and leverage and, in many cases, the widely shared failure to learn the necessary lessons and to adapt to realities as they were encountered. http://aan-afghanistan.com/uploads/2012_AAN_E-book_Snapshots_of_an_Intervention.pdf
14.  “The Current Status of Al-Qaida.” Oxford Research Group, June 2012.
During May, there were three events that aid an understanding of the current status and future prospects for the al-Qaida movement. These were the interception of an improvised explosive device designed to be employed in destroying a passenger aircraft; the killing of a key operative, Fahd al Quso, by a drone attack in Yemen; and the exploding of two very large car bombs in Damascus, as well as a third car bomb targeting a military complex in an eastern Syrian city. The issue of who are the perpetrators of the increasing terrorist violence in Syria is hotly contested, but it is likely to prove a severe complication in any attempt to seek an end to the conflict. This makes diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Syria even more critical.
There are widely differing views as to the potency of the al-Qaida movement and this briefing seeks to present a helpful interpretation. http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/sites/default/files/MayEn12_0.pdf
15.  “Haqqani Network Financing: The Evolution Of An Industry.” Combating Terrorism Center, July 2012.
The CTC’s latest report leverages captured battlefield material and the insights of local community members in Afghanistan and Pakistan to outline the financial architecture that sustains the Haqqani faction of the Afghan insurgency.  The Haqqani network is widely recognized as a semi-autonomous component of the Taliban and as the deadliest and most globally focused faction of that latter group.  What receives far less attention is the fact that the Haqqani network also appears to be the most sophisticated and diversified from a financial standpoint.  In addition to raising funds from ideologically like-minded donors, an activity the Haqqanis have engaged in since the 1980s, information collected for this report indicates that over the past three decades they have penetrated key business sectors, including import-export, transport, real estate and construction in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab Gulf and beyond.   The Haqqani network also appears to operate its own front companies, many of which seem to be directed at laundering illicit proceeds.  By examining these issues this report demonstrates how the Haqqanis’ involvement in criminal and profit-making activities has diversified over time in pragmatic response to shifting funding conditions and economic opportunities, and how members of the group have a financial incentive to remain the dealmakers and the enforcers in their area of operations, a dynamic which is likely to complicate future U.S. and Afghan efforts to deal with the group.
16.  “Taliban Recruiting and Fundraising in Karachi.”  Combating Terrorism Center, July 2012.
Karachi is Pakistan’s commercial hub as well as its largest city. Taking advantage of Karachi’s ongoing ethnic and sectarian violence, militants from several Taliban factions and al-Qa`ida have moved to the city to escape U.S. drone strikes and Pakistani military operations in Pakistan’s northwest tribal regions.
Karachi’s role as a shelter for al-Qa`ida and Taliban militants is well known. This article, however, provides clarity on how al-Qa`ida and Taliban militants are using Karachi to recruit university-educated youth as well as finance their operations against Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan.
17.  Foundation for Afghanistan
18.  “Afghan National Security Forces: Afghan Corruption and the Development of an Effective Fighting Force.” Hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, August 2012.
19.  “Afghan National Security Forces and Security Lead Transition: The Assessment Process, Metrics, and Efforts to Build Capability.”  Hearing before the House Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, July 2012.
20.  “Dawood National Military Hospital, Afghanistan: What Happened and What Went Wrong?”  Hearing before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, July 2012.  
21.  “Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Historical Lessons.”  Hearing before the House Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, July 2012. http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/hearings-display?ContentRecord_id=46f2231a-02a8-4db4-bfad-3d19f486f9a7  
22.  “Quarterly Report to the United States Congress.” Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, July 2012.   
23.  “Fiscal Year 2011 Afghanistan Infrastructure Fund Projects Are behind Schedule and Lack Adequate Sustainment Plans.” Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, July 2012.
24.  “Selected Public Diplomacy Awards Mostly Achieved Objectives, but Embassy Can Take Steps to Enhance Grant Management and Oversight.” Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, July 2012.
25.  “Washington's Civilian Shortcomings in Pakistan.” Milan Vaishnav. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2012.
Nearly three years ago, the Obama administration and Congress signaled their intention to forge a civilian partnership with the new, democratically elected government of Pakistan. Motivating this reset was a sincere desire, in Washington and Islamabad, to avoid a confusion that has defined the U.S.-Pakistan relationship for decades: the conflation of security and nonsecurity objectives in the distribution of U.S. aid to Pakistan. The centerpiece of this new approach was the 2009 Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act, commonly referred to as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill, which authorized $7.5 billion in U.S. economic assistance to Pakistan over five years. Yet if the United States hopes to achieve the goals it laid out in 2009, it must change its approach now.
26.  “Stabilizing Pakistan Through Police Reform.” Hassan Abbas, ed. Asia Society, July 2012.
In the coming years, Pakistan will continue to face a range of challenges stemming from both internal and external factors. In addition to the transnational and regional threats of terrorism, Pakistan is also experiencing domestic security challenges posed by rising religious extremism and militancy, kidnappings, organized crime, insurgencies, and political assassinations. Increasingly fragile internal security and law enforcement systems will likely pose grave difficulties for the country. In light of the trends of increasing insecurity and instability, how the police and other law enforcement bodies are structured and how they coordinate efforts to combat security threats deserve greater attention.
Despite frequent internal crises in Pakistan since the country was established in 1947—ranging from ethnic and sectarian conflicts to chronic political instability and underdevelopment—policy makers have neglected to prioritize police reform. High crime rates throughout the country, relatively low conviction rates of prisoners on trial, and heightened concerns about instability spilling over from Afghanistan indicate that there is an urgent and critical need to invest in and reform Pakistan’s law enforcement infrastructure.
27.  “More Money, More Problems: A 2012 Assessment of the US Approach to Development in Pakistan.” Nancy Birdsall, Milan Vaishnav, and Daniel Cutherell. Center for Global Development, July 2012.
In March 2009, the Obama administration announced a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. A central component of this new strategy was a significant increase in the deployment of resources—human and financial—through civilian (nonsecurity) channels in both countries. In so doing, the administration sought to demonstrate a new commitment to civilian-led government in Pakistan. Underlying this new strategic framework was a realization within the administration that Pakistan’s ability to grow economically, to meet its citizens’ basic needs, and to reduce domestic conflict, insecurity, and instability depended on the establishment of a more capable and effective democratic state. The administration was also moved by the fact that Pakistan represents a genuine security threat to the region, to the United States, and to the world. By now, the myriad concerns are well known: extremist violence, cross-border and domestic terrorism, the possibility of “loose nukes,” and the potential failure of the Pakistani state. On the basis of these significant development and security challenges, the Obama administration determined that it was in the long-term of interests of the US government and the American people to build a new partnership with the government of Pakistan to help counter these pressing challenges.
28.  “Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan: A Literature Review.” Mariam Mufti. Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2012.  http://csis.org/files/publication/120709_Mufti_ReligionMilitancy_Web.pdf
29.  “U.S. Engagement in Central Asia.” Hearing before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia, July 2012.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Reconstruction Update


  1. “Afghan National Security Forces: Resources, Strategy, and Timetable for Security Lead Transition.”  Hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, 20 June 2012. http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/hearings-display?ContentRecord_id=74a9017f-5e1b-418a-9878-2afe7e3f9e3f    

  1. State Department Fact Sheet: U.S.-Russia Cooperation on Afghanistan, June 2012. http://csis.org/files/publication/120619_Afghan_Transition.pdf  

  1. “In Brief: Next Steps in the War in Afghanistan? Issues for Congress.”  Congressional Research Service, June 2012. 
On May 1, 2012, President Obama gave a speech from Bagram Air Field in which he laid out U.S. government approaches for “winding down” the war in Afghanistan.  While a number of observers have challenged the logical plausibility of a unilateral decision to “wind down” a war, the Administration’s commitment to decreasing U.S. involvement in the war in Afghanistan is clear.
As of mid-2012, many observers point to a coalescing vision of the way forward—shared by the governments of the United States, Afghanistan, and other international partners—that includes bringing the current campaign to a close by the end of 2014, and pursuing a political settlement among the parties in conflict, while extending U.S. and other international commitments to Afghanistan beyond 2014. In evaluating this emerging vision, some observers emphasize that the overall level of ambition has been lowered, while others stress that the timeline for international engagement has been extended. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42137.pdf   

  1. “Learning from Women's Success in the 2010 Afghan Elections.”  United States Institute of Peace, June 2012.  
Afghan women made small but significant gains in participation in Afghanistan’s September 2010 parliamentary elections. But their status in Afghanistan’s electoral system is precarious, and significant effort is needed to preserve gains during the next election cycle in 2013–15. In the 2010 parliamentary elections, seventy-eight more female candidates ran than in the 2005 elections, a 24 percent increase. One additional woman was elected to Parliament over the sixty-eight-person quota stated in the constitution, and in four provinces, a woman received the highest number of votes out of all candidates.
Women continued to face significant obstacles to campaigning, however, with female candidates and their campaign workers receiving a disproportionate number of threats or attacks reported during the elections. In less secure areas, cultural restrictions on women’s access to public spaces increased, leaving many female candidates unable to effectively communicate with voters.
Women made up 40 percent of the electorate in 2010, but women’s access to the electoral      process as voters often depends on having women hired as election workers by the            electoral administration, candidates, and observer groups. Without female counterparts        working at the polls, many women will stay home due to cultural concerns over             interacting with men in public places.            
A significant finding from the 2010 candidate statistics is that women face less competition for seats than men do, making it attractive for political parties or coalitions to recruit powerful women to run on their platforms. http://www.usip.org/files/resources/SR309.pdf  

  1. “Reconciliation with the Taliban: Fracturing the Insurgency.”  Institute for the Study of War, June 2012.  The Obama administration has pursued peace talks with the Taliban’s leadership in Pakistan with the hopes of engineering a grand peace bargain with the Taliban. Making a deal with the Taliban senior leadership will compromise America’s national security interests in the region by fueling ethnic tensions in Afghanistan and possibly providing a continued platform for international extremists to operate within the region and beyond. Thus far, there has been little to no progress and the effort has halted since the Taliban walked away from preliminary discussions in March. However, high-level outreach between the U.S. and Afghan governments and the senior Taliban leaders hiding in Pakistan has caused the various factions in the movement to turn against each other—some believing that peace talks are a step in the right direction and others vowing to fight to the death. Capitalizing on this infighting, rather than quixotically pursuing a negotiated settlement, may be the best way for the international community and the Afghan government to accelerate the demise of the movement.  http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Backgrounder_Reconciliation.pdf

6.      “It's the economy...Even in Afghanistan.” ForeignPolicy.com.
Americans are not alone in worrying that their economic futures are headed in the wrong direction. Afghans, too, fear that the next several years will bring a business tailspin that will see recent gains eked out by small and medium companies dissolve amid security woes and a sharp pullback in international largesse and, of course, foreign forces.
The "light of a new day" may be "on the horizon," as President Obama announced this May from Bagram Air Base, but Afghan entrepreneurs want to make sure their start-ups survive the changes that will accompany whatever comes next. This Thursday 50 such business-owners, 12 women among them, will gather at an investment conference in New Delhi hosted by the Confederation of Indian Industries with support from the Confederation of Women Entrepreneurs in India (CWEI).
         
8    7. “Afghanistan: The Failing Economics of Transition.”  Anthony H. Cordesman and Sean T. Mann. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In the next two and a half years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government in a process labeled “Transition”. One of the major challenges facing the US and its allies during this time is helping Afghanistan prepare for significant cuts in military and development spending, which have long driven the growth of Afghanistan’s fragile economy. These cuts, along with the country’s fractious politics and persistent insecurity, threaten to derail Transition for a number of reasons…  http://csis.org/files/publication/120626_Afghan_Uncert_Econ_Trans.pdf
8.  “The Afghanistan Stabilisation Program (ASP): A National Program to Improve Security and Governance.”  Shahmahmood Miakhel. Middle East Institute. Since the coup in April of 1978 by the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), the social, cultural, political, economic, governance, and security fabric of Afghanistan’s institutions have been destroyed by the subsequent Mujahedin and Taleban regimes. It is impossible to have enduring peace, stability, and development in a country without a strong institutional foundation. After 33 years of war and instability, for the most part, the linkages between central, provincial, district, and village governance structures in Afghanistan are either very weak or non-existent.  
After the overthrow of the Taleban regime in 2001, the government of Afghanistan and the donor community recognized from the very outset that government institutions were mere weak skeletal structures. Two years after the Taleban were ousted from power, most of the district headquarters in Afghanistan did not even have proper buildings from which to run local administration. In 2004, in an effort to strengthen local governance, the government of Afghanistan launched the Afghanistan Stabilisation Program (ASP).  The main objectives of the ASP were to extend the reach of the government of Afghanistan into the districts and provinces through building physical infrastructure and enhancing the capacity of local governance.
1    9.  “Pakistan's Impending Defeat in Afghanistan.” Ashley J. Tellis. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 2012.
Irrespective of how the coming security transition in Afghanistan pans out, one country is on a surprising course to a major strategic defeat: Pakistan. Every foreseeable ending to the Afghan war today—continued conflict with the Taliban, restoration of Taliban control in the southern and eastern provinces, or a nationwide civil war—portends nothing but serious perils for Islamabad. But judging from Pakistan’s behavior, it appears as if this fact has eluded the generals in Rawalpindi.
1    10. “The Court Rules in Pakistan: Pakistan Supreme Court’s Dogged Efforts to Reduce Corruption Could Signal Democracy – or Chaos.” Paula Newberg. YaleGlobal, June 2012.
Pakistan has a history of its civilian government being removed from power by the military, and last week the country’s Supreme Court mounted what could be the first judicial coup. As Pakistan faces terrorist challenges, political turmoil and economic crises, the activist Supreme Court has compounded the challenges – ruling that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani’s contempt-of-court conviction prevents him from serving in parliament. The newly nominated candidate, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, has also been served with an arrest warrant by the Supreme Court. Paula Newberg, Marshall B. Coyne Director of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, points out that the court claims to support democracy, yet ignited another domestic crisis as Pakistan confronts immense foreign-policy challenges with NATO’s impending withdrawal from Afghanistan. Fiery activism and debate could signal movement toward democracy. Criticism of Pakistan’s government, from its own courts or an ally like the US, should come in measured doses. Too much could irrevocably weaken the civilian government. Unmanageable reforms, especially during a difficult transition period, are dangerous and could encourage unknown alternatives to civilian government.
11. "Porus Border and Corruption Keep Drugs Flowing through Tajikistan.” Alexander Sodiqov, Jamestown Foundation.
Recent weeks have seen a number of major narcotics busts in Tajikistan. On June 17, a border patrol found a cache containing almost 420 kilograms of cannabis in Shurobod district, on the country’s southern frontier with Afghanistan. On June 11, the authorities reported busting some 14 kg of hashish in the country’s north. One day earlier, police in Shurobod spotted a group of Afghan smugglers that had crossed the Panj River separating the two countries. Following a brief shootout, the smugglers retreated to Afghanistan, leaving behind about 100 kg of cannabis. On June 9, police reported capturing some 107 kg of narcotics, including 38 kg of heroin, in Hamadoni, another Tajik district lying on the southern frontier. On June 6, police intercepted more than 90 kg of narcotics after a two-hour clash with Afghan smugglers in Shurobod. Overall, almost 800 kg of drugs have been seized in Tajikistan since the beginning of June (news.tj, June 7, 10, 11, 18).

Reconstruction Update


  1. “Smuggling of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Materials from Pakistan to Afghanistan.”  U.S. Government Accountability Office, May 2012.
Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been a significant cause of fatalities among U.S. troops in Afghanistan. About 80 percent of the IEDs contain homemade explosives, primarily calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) fertilizer smuggled from Pakistan. U.S. officials recognize the threat posed by the smuggling of CAN and other IED precursors from Pakistan into Afghanistan, and the Department of State (State) and other agencies are assisting Pakistan’s government to counter this threat. In addition, with the adoption in 2011 of its National Counter-IED Strategy, Pakistan recognized the importance of addressing the IED threat, both for its own security and stability goals, as well as for counterterrorism efforts in the region. Various insurgent groups in Pakistan regularly use IEDs, which have killed thousands of Pakistani civilians and security force members.

  1. “Middle East Leads World in Negative Emotions.”  Gallup World, June 2012.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- People living in Iraq, the Palestinian Territories, Bahrain, and a few other Middle Eastern countries are among the most likely worldwide to experience a lot of negative emotions on a daily basis, according to Gallup's Negative Experience Index. Iraq's score of 59 on the index in 2011 -- which is based on respondents' reports of experiencing anger, stress, worry, sadness, and physical pain -- is the highest in the world. The Palestinian Territories placed a distant second with a score of 43.

  1. “Parting Gift for Afghans: A Military McMansion.” Wall Street Journal.
ZARGHUN SHAHR, Afghanistan—In a dusty valley here, construction workers are racing to finish a fiber-optic-equipped military base for a wood-burning army.
The $89 million U.S.-funded forward operating base, called Super FOB, is being built to house the Afghan army brigade that patrols Paktika province, along the contentious Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
But Super FOB is being completed, and due to be expanded, after the U.S. and its allies have decided the Afghan security forces should be about a third smaller than envisioned when the base was conceived by U.S. and Afghan strategists. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303610504577420232465796466.html?mod=googlenews_wsj  

  1. “Power and patronage in Pakistan.” Stephen M. Lyon, University of Kent.
Asymmetrical power relationships are found throughout Pakistan’s Punjabi and Pukhtun communities. This thesis argues that these relationships must be examined as manifestations of cultural continuity rather than as separate structures. The various cultures of Pakistan display certain common cultural features which suggest a reexamination of past analytical divisions of tribe and peasant societies. This thesis looks at the ways power is expressed, accumulated and maintained in three social contexts: kinship, caste and political relationships. These three social contexts are embedded within a collection of “hybridizing” cultures (i.e. cultures which exhibit strong mechanisms for cultural accommodation without loss of “identity”). Socialisation within kin groups provides the building blocks for Pakistani asymmetrical relationships, which may usefully be understood as a form of patronage. As these social building blocks are transferred to non-kin contexts the patron/client aspects are more easily identified and studied; however, this thesis argues that the core relationship roles exist even in close kinship contexts. The emphasis on asymmetry in personal relationships leads to rivalries between individuals who do not agree with each other’s claims to equality or superiority. There are mechanisms for defusing the tension and conflict when such disagreements arise. State politics and religion are examined for the ways in which these patron/client roles are enacted on much larger scales but remain embedded within, and must respect, the cultural values underpinning those roles.

  1. “Kurdish history: Leaders’ greed trumps nationalism.” Michael Rubin.
            June 1 marked the 37th anniversary of the founding of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan          (PUK). While Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masud Barzani graciously          congratulated PUK leader Talabani, bad blood between the two families and their parties       is long, deep, and persistent. 
            The schism predates the PUK’s birth; historian David McDowall, whose “A Modern         History of the Kurds,” remains the desktop reference for Kurdish history, details the        development of factionalism in the KDP in the wake of the Mahabad Republic’s collapse.

  1. “For Exiles, Iraq Beckons and Repels.” New York Times.
BAGHDAD — Ali al-Subiahi returned from his family’s self-imposed exile in the United States to reclaim a sense of himself in a new Iraq.
At 26, he runs a string of private schools in Baghdad, bankrolled by his earnings as an interpreter for the United States military. He has adapted, showing what he considers an American entrepreneurial flair, advertising for his schools on blast walls left from the bloodiest days of the war.
As an American citizen, and a former military employee, he remains fearful for his life. But as an Iraqi, and a Muslim, he finds living here easier than in his family’s new home in Lincoln, Neb., where strip clubs, liquor stores and churches are part of the nearby suburban landscape.

  1. Books on Pakistan:
    1. “The Unraveling: Pakistan in the Age of Jihad,” John R. Schmidt.  The author was formerly Political Counselor at the American Embassy, Islamabad, Pakistan. http://www.amazon.com/The-Unraveling-Pakistan-Age-Jihad/dp/0374280436
    2. “Pakistan: A Hard Country,” Anatol Lieven. http://www.amazon.com/Pakistan-Hard-Country-Anatol-Lieven/dp/1610391454/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1339561845&sr=1-1&keywords=pakistan+hard+country
      Both books are good.  If you are pressed for time, read “The Unraveling.”  

  1. 2012 Failed States Index Released, The Fund for Peace.
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Fund for Peace today released the eighth edition of its annual Failed States Index (FSI), highlighting global political, economic and social pressures experienced by states. 
The 2012 FSI ranks Somalia as number one for the fifth consecutive year, citing widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, insurgency, crime, and well-publicized pirate attacks against foreign vessels. 
Meanwhile, Finland has remained in the best position, with its Scandinavian neighbors Sweden and Denmark rounding out the best three rankings. All three nations benefit from strong social and economic indicators, paired with excellent provision of public services and respect for human rights and the rule of law.

  1. “Failed Index.” ForeignPolicy.com.
We at Africa is a Country think Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace should either radically rethink the Failed States Index, which they publish in collaboration each year, or abandon it altogether. We just can't take it seriously: It's a failed index.
This year, pro forma, almost the entire African continent shows up on the Failed States map in the guiltiest shade of red. The accusation is that with a handful of exceptions, African states are failing in 2012. But what does this tell us? What does it actually mean? Frankly, we have no idea. The index is so flawed in its conception, so incoherent in its structuring criteria, and so misleading in its presentation that from the perspective of those who live or work in those places condemned as failures, it's difficult to receive the ranking as anything more than a predictable annual canard issued from Washington, D.C. against non-Western -- and particularly African -- nations.

  1. “My real ‘crime’:Standing up for U.S.-Pakistan relations.” Husain Haqqani.
I am saddened but not surprised that a Pakistani judicial inquiry commission has accused me of being disloyal while serving as my country’s ambassador to the United States. The tide of anti-Americanism has been rising in Pakistan for almost a decade. An overwhelming majority of Pakistanis consider the United States an enemy, notwithstanding the nominal alliance that has existed between our countries for six decades. Americans, frustrated by what they see as Pakistani intransigence in fighting terrorism in Afghanistan, are becoming less willing to accept Pakistani demands even though Pakistan has suffered heavily at the hands of terrorists.
This is a difficult time to openly advocate friendly relations between the United States and Pakistan. I am proud that I did so as ambassador. During my tenure, the United States agreed to initiate a strategic dialogue with Pakistani civil and military leaders. The idea was to overcome the episodic nature of bilateral relations: Our countries had a pattern of working together for a few years and then falling out amid complaints about each other. The strategic dialogue sought to reconcile Pakistan’s regional concerns about Afghanistan and India with U.S. global concerns about nuclear proliferation and terrorism. But the dialogue stalled last year, and a series of unfortunate incidents, culminating in Osama bin Laden being found in Pakistan last year, has brought our countries to the brink of an adversarial relationship.

  1. “Life After Karzai.” Michael O’Hanlon, ForeignPolicy.com
Where I went: For all the worries about Afghanistan today, there was something uplifting about many of the conversations I was privileged to be part of on my most recent trip there, in May, with former U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann as my travel partner and with the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) as the official sponsor of the trip.
A spirit of hopefulness, more than fear, characterized most people I spoke with in Kabul. The recent signing of the U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) to guide cooperation after 2014, when the NATO combat mission is set to end, reassures many Afghans that they will not be left to their own darker angels -- or the mercy of their neighbors -- when ISAF's transition is complete. Although implementing protocols and a status of forces agreement for the SPA may prove difficult to negotiate, the accord has definitely given a boost to the strides of many Afghan reformers who continue to work hard for their country's future.

  1. “No Country For Armed Men.”  Ahmed Rashid, ForeignPolicy.com.
LAHORE– It was a sign of the misguided times in Pakistan that on June 5 -- a day when the country faced massive rolling electricity blackouts, a crashing economy, civil war in two out of four provinces, violence from the Himalayas to the Arabian Gulf, and a cratering relationship with the United States -- the Pakistani army decided it was the best moment to test fire a cruise missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It was the fifth such test since April, supposedly a morale booster for a wildly depressed public, a signal to India that Pakistan would not put its guard down despite its problems, and a message to U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who had arrived in Delhi that morning, that Pakistan could not be bullied.

  1. “Sakena Yacoobi’s Courage and the Future of Afghan Women.” Isobel Coleman.
It’s good to have heroes. One of mine is Sakena Yacoobi, the founder of a terrific organization called the Afghan Institute of Learning (AIL) that provides education and health services to women across Afghanistan. I first met Sakena nearly a decade ago, and have followed her work closely since then. I’ve visited several of AIL’s programs in Afghanistan and wrote about her and her work in my book Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women are Transforming the Middle East.
Taught to read as a child by her local mullah in western Afghanistan, Sakena remarkably (read my book for all the details) went on to earn a master’s degree in public health in the United States. In the 1990s, she started the Afghan Institute of Learning, mostly serving Afghan refugees in Pakistan, but also secretly operating girls’ schools in Kabul during the Taliban years. After the Taliban were toppled in 2001, AIL quickly expanded its programs, establishing multiple women’s centers across the country. Its reach today is impressive: since 1996, AIL-trained teachers have taught 4.6 million people, and more than a million Afghan women and their children have received its health services. In 2011 alone, the organization treated over 185,000 people (70 percent of them women). Over nine million Afghans – a third of the population – have been touched by AIL programs. Sakena manages all of this on a shoe-string budget of less than $2 million a year, using local resources and local salaries.

  1. “The Big Picture – Afghanistan: May 2012.” Boston.com
U.S. and NATO forces continue to train the Afghan troops in advance of the handover of the country's security in 2014. The US-led war in Afghanistan has cost the lives of around 3,000 US and allied troops, seen thousands of Afghans killed and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. We check in on our soldiers for May (and a little bit of June 2012.) -- Paula Nelson (45 photos total) http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2012/06/afghanistan_may_2012_1.html  

  1. “Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?”  Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2012.
The key issue in evaluating the prospects for a successful Transition in Afghanistan is not whether a successful transition in Afghanistan is possible, it is rather whether some form of meaningful transition is probable – a very different thing. The answer is a modest form of strategic success is still possible, but that it is too soon to know whether it is probable and there are many areas where the current level of planning, analysis, and action combined to sharply reduce the chances for success.
The Afghan government, the US and its allies, and aid donors have not made enough collective progress to assign a clear level of probability. Equally important, it is too soon to know what level of forces they will maintain in Afghanistan through the end of 2014 and beyond, what levels of military and civil aid they will provide, and what level of success Afghanistan can achieve moving forward.

  1. “Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin, June 2012 (Reporting May 2012).” World Food Programme, June 2012.
Average wheat grain retail prices were on decreasing since July-2011 and continued until the reporting month (May 2012). It is mainly due to decrease of wheat price on the regional markets (Pakistan and Kazakhstan). On the international market continues decreasing trend of wheat price started from October 2011 till April 2012. Recent decrease in wheat price is also due to normal trend of export from main export countries and good precipitation which will hopefully result in good harvest this year.

  1. “Mind the Gap? Local Practices and Institutional Reforms for Water Allocation in Afghanistan’s Panj-Amu River Basin.” Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, June 2012.
Since 2004, policymakers and international donor agencies have been trying to introduce “good” water governance concepts in the reform of Afghanistan’s water sector. The 2009 Water Law is based around the “holy trinity” of integrated water resource management (IWRM), river basin management (RBM) and participation in decentralised decision-making via Multi-Stakeholder Platforms (MSPs). Since 2005, the Panj-Amu River Basin Program (PARBP) has been piloting the introduction of these imported concepts in north-eastern Afghanistan.
International experience shows that institutional change rarely follows models as they are originally designed, as implementation often faces resistance on the ground. Piloting the implementation of complex water governance reforms at sub-basin level requires using the lessons learned from actual practices and outcomes of implemented strategies to anticipate the opportunities and challenges in the adaptation of policies and strategies, including for MSPs, in a given river basin.
With this context in mind, this research attempts to provide a better understanding of how local institutions deal with water allocation at the sub-basin level during dry years, and discuss further policy challenges and opportunities. It begins by describing the existing institutional arrangements shaping water allocation, going on to assess their performance, before identifying and analysing the gaps between existing policies and ground realities. The overall focus is on how decision-making processes and power relations shape water allocation at sub-basin level.

  1. “Rebuilding Pharmaceutical Systems in Afghanistan: Assuring Sustainability by Developing Human Resources.” International Pharmacy Journal, June 2012. http://www.fip.nl/files/fip/IPJ/IPJ_Vol27_No1_web_def.pdf#page=25  

  1.  “Counternarcotics Policy in Afghanistan: A Good Strategy Poorly Implemented.”  Brookings Institution, May 2012. 
Narcotics production and counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan are of critical importance not only for drug control there and worldwide, but also for the counterinsurgency, stabilization, economic, and rule-of-law efforts in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, many of the counternarcotics policies adopted during the 2000s decade had serious counterproductive effects on these objectives.  

In a courageous break with thirty years of counter-narcotics policies that focused on ineffective forced eradication of illicit crops as a way to reduce the supply of drugs and bankrupt belligerents, the Obama administration wisely decided in 2009 to scale back eradication in Afghanistan. Instead, its counternarcotics strategy emphasized selective interdiction of high-level and particularly Taliban-linked traffickers and comprehensive rural development.  

But the effectiveness of the administration’s well-thought-out counternarcotics strategy has been challenged by major implementation difficulties. Effective implementation is ultimately dependent on achieving robust progress in improving security and governance in Afghanistan -- the former very tenuous at best, the latter overwhelmingly characterized by corruption, abuse, and incompetence. Critical problems have also arisen as a result of misguided policies in the field. Interdiction has lost its selective focus on high-level Taliban-linked traffickers and become indiscriminate in targeting small-level farmers. In most of Afghanistan, including some of the most strategic areas, alternative livelihoods efforts have not amounted to comprehensive long-term development. And eradication and bans on poppy are still going on, once again emiserating farmers and driving instability and conflict.



  1. “Polio Global Emergency Action Plan 2012-2013.” World Health Organisation, June 2012.
An unprecedented intensity of polio eradication activities in 2010-11 resulted in several landmark successes. India became polio-free and global cases decreased by 52%; of the four countries with re-established poliovirus transmission, South Sudan and Angola have not recorded a case since June 2009 and July 2011, respectively, while cases fell substantially in the second half of 2011 in Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All importation-associated outbreaks in eight previously polio-free countries in 2011 were stopped, all but one (in Mali) within six months.
In the three remaining polio-endemic countries, however, polio cases soared from 2010 to 2011 (in Afghanistan by 220%, in Nigeria by 185% and in Pakistan by 37%), with the most dramatic rise in the second half of 2011. Polio also spread internationally from Nigeria and Pakistan, underscoring the risk that endemic poliovirus transmission continues to pose globally. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/PDF2.pdf  

  1. “Quarterly Data Report. Q1 2012.” Afghan NGO Safety Office, June 2012.

  1. “Afghanistan: Time to Move to Sustainable Jobs. Study on the State of Employment in Afghanistan.”  International Labour Organisation, May 2012.
The situation of Afghanistan is today undermined by the convergence of demographic, social, economic, and of course, political challenges. Recent figures released by the World Bank and the Afghan Ministry of Finance indicate that the total amount of aid for 2010/2011 amounted to approximately US$15.7 billion, which is close to the overall GDP. As such, both the income of the Afghan government and the precarious economic equilibrium of the country are directly dependent on donors’ contributions and the country could thus suffer an economic downturn and severe uncertainties as a consequence of a reduction in development assistance funds.
In this context, this study calls for a longer term approach to socio-economic development in Afghanistan, in which employment and decent work take a central role. While this is indeed a major challenge given the economic and political uncertainties facing the country, a balance needs to be found between the urgency of stabilization and creating more sustainable jobs that lift people and their families out of poverty.